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“At the end of the day, this is not about revenue. This is about channelization,” Nally added. “How much of that black market can we channelize into the legal, regulated market?”

According to Nally, approximately 70% of online gambling in Alberta occurred through unregulated operators prior to the July 13 launch, with the remaining 30% flowing through Play Alberta, the province’s sole legal platform at the time.

As of Sept. 17, 31 licensed iGaming operators are officially live and accepting wagers across the province.

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How to play Hong Bao

But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.

“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”

For now, the growth provides room for multiple market makers. Marantelli expects margins to “stay good during the growth period” before contracting as competition intensifies. The more complex RFQ and parlay markets may offer the best protection against that compression.