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“Just eight years ago, this court reiterated that ‘each state is free to act on its own’ in regulating sports betting,” the petition says. “But Kalshi has a different view. Kalshi bills itself as ‘the first app for legal sports betting in all 50 states’ and believes it can offer that legal sports betting without following the sports-gambling laws of any of those 50 states.”
In a statement, Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever said the platform is “an open, nationwide, financial exchange” that “cannot be regulated by 50 different regulators”, per CDC Gaming.
“Both the Third Circuit and the District of New Jersey side with Kalshi, because the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction prompt state law,” Lever said, adding that “nothing in New Jersey’s filing” changes that view.
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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
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“People look primarily at the instances where things go wrong for players; of course, every single one of those is one too many. But they don’t tend to look at the large number of people enjoying gambling.”
Holland Casino was one of the first operators out of the gate when the newly-minted market opened in 2021, and while they don’t have the position they occupied in those early days, the company’s online offering is healthy. When they launched online, Petra says “we were very well known for – and are very well known for – responsible gaming.
“That was the reason why we joined [online as well as land-based]. But we were a full brick-and-mortar company so it took us some time to prepare for that market. In the beginning, the market share was of course higher because you only had 10 operators and we had a very well-known brand name, but now the market is much bigger and you have operators more specialised in sports betting and things like that. We have dropped down a bit.”