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Online sports would make up 48% of its adjusted EBITDA, followed by distributed gaming (27%) and casinos (25%).

Van Lancker said the merger would combine the strengths of both businesses to create a larger and more diversified company with “greater scale and enhanced capabilities” to accelerate growth and create value.

The enlarged group could deliver up to €4 billion in capital returns over the three years following the completion of the deal.

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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.